Large carnivores have made a remarkable comeback in Europe during the last half century. The ongoing recovery of many large carnivores in Europe is a recognised conservation success, made possible by protective legislation, more favourable public attitudes and habitat improvements.
Having a common understanding of the distribution and size of their populations in Europe is important to make decisions regarding their conservation and management.
The report Large carnivore distribution maps and population updates 2017 – 2022/23 is based on the latest information and provides the best available overview of brown bear (Ursus arctos), Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), wolf (Canis lupus), golden jackal (Canis aureus), and wolverine (Gulo gulo) distributions and population sizes at a European continental scale (covering 34 countries).
Countries of distribution: The brown bear is present in 29 of the 34 countries/regions that were monitored. However, no reproduction has been recorded for Austria, Germany, Portugal, and Switzerland. So far, no bear presence, not even sporadically, has been reported from Belgium, Denmark, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and the European part of Turkey.
Change in distribution range: Most bear populations have somewhat expanded their permanent distribution range compared to the previous reporting period. The total area occupied totals around 1.2 million km. However, much of this gain in range is due to changes in the monitoring methods for the large Carpathian and Baltic populations.
Populations trend: The population of bears has increased, which is largely due to an increase in the large Baltic, Carpathian, and Karelian populations.
Interesting fact: In Portugal, the first brown bear after almost two centuries of absence was recorded in 2019 close to the border with Spain.
More information can be found here.
Countries of distribution: The lynx is currently found in 25 of the 34 countries/regions surveyed. The lynx is not present in Denmark, Greece, Kosovo*, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Portugal, Spain, The Netherlands, and the European part of Turkey.
Change in distribution range: The overall lynx distribution has increased due to a combination of natural expansion, reinforcement via translocation, and new reintroduction projects. The total area occupied amounts to almost 1.5 million km². However, a large part of this gain in range is due to changes in the monitoring method for the large Carpathian and Baltic populations.
*The possible presence of the isolated Balkan population in Greece in the 2012-2016 lynx map could not be confirmed and is now excluded from the distribution area.
Populations trend: Overall, there has been little to no change in the population size as most of the large populations are stable (Karelian, Scandinavian populations) or are increasing only slowly (Baltic, Carpathian population). The population of the critically endangered Balkan lynx remains small and isolated and is in urgent need of conservation actions. For the Jura and Vosges-Palatinian population trend estimates are difficult due to the lack of population estimates from France. The Pomeranian and Black Forest-Swabian Jura occurrences are still too recent for trend estimates.
Interesting fact: Reinforcement of the lynx population reintroduced in Slovenia in the 1970s has revived the gene pool and helped to increase population size and genetic diversity, thus preventing the likely re-extinction of lynx in Slovenia and Croatia.
More information can be found here.
Countries of distribution: The wolf now occurs in all 34 countries/regions monitored. Since 2016, the wolf made a comeback in Belgium and Luxembourg.
Change in distribution range: Wolf distribution increased rapidly since 2016 and now covers ca. 2.2 million km². Large area gains were specially made in the Central European population.
Although there is no doubt that wolf distribution has greatly increased, some of this increase can be clearly attributed to a change in in methodology. This is especially true for the Italian peninsula (which was mapped in its entirety for the first time in a standardised manner), Latvia (now also including citizen science data), and Ukraine (where access to new and better monitoring data became accessible). The gain by these 3 countries alone accounts for 22% of the range change.
Population trend: The wolf population is stable or increasing in all populations. The overall increase is especially driven by the rapidly expanding Central European and Alpine populations. The Dinaric-Pindos population also appears to be increasing, but in some areas, it is difficult to obtain reliable population estimates. Population estimates for the Carpathian and Dinaric-Balkan population include expert estimates.
Interesting fact: Due to wolves having relatively large litter sizes and experiencing high mortality, wolf population size varies greatly over the course of a year. Monitoring the number of family groups or “packs” and “pairs” would be a more robust and consistent way to estimate population size but cannot be achieved with all established monitoring methods.
More information can be found here.
Countries of distribution: The wolverine is only found in the three northernmost European countries/regions monitored: Norway, Sweden, and Finland.
Change in distribution range: The total distribution area of wolverines in Europe currently covers 745,00 km2, which is a 4% increase in range since 2016. The distribution of wolverines in Europe has remained mostly stable, with some regional variations.
Populations trend: The wolverine population in Europe remained stable, showing a slight increase in the Karelian region, while the Scandinavian population shows no obvious change.
Interesting fact: In Finland, information on reproduction is not systematically collected so that the distinction between permanent and sporadic distribution was no longer possible. However, track density on winter transects allows to map overall range and estimate population size.
More information can be found here.
Countries of distribution: The golden jackal is currently present in 29 of the 34 European countries/regions monitored. So far, no jackal presence, not even sporadically, has been reported from Belgium, Luxembourg, Portugal and Sweden.
Change in distribution range: The golden jackal is clearly expanding its range, now coveringapproximately 765,000 km2. The golden jackal range was estimated to be increasing in 21 countries. Only two countries, Turkey and Bulgaria, reported no obvious change. Distribution trends are unknown in six countries due to fragmented or infrequent monitoring.
Population trend: The jackal is confirmed widespread and breeding in 11 countries, thought to be widespread and breeding in another 3, localised with local breeding in 3, has few individuals in 5, and has the first individuals recorded in 4 countries. No reliable population estimates are possible due to a lack of systematic monitoring.
Interesting fact: Long-distance dispersers have been observed throughout western and northern Europe, with Finland, France, Norway and Spain recording their first jackal presence during the 2017-2022/23 monitoring period.
More information can be found here.
Reference of data presented above: Kaczensky, Petra; Ranc, Nathan; Hatlauf, Jennifer et al. (Forthcoming 2024). Large carnivore distribution maps for Europe 2017 – 2022/23 [Dataset]. Dryad. https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.3xsj3txrc
Range maps:
- Detecting large carnivores is not only dependent on their presence, but also on the effort spent searching for their signs or collating and verifying reports. Thus, where monitoring is scarce or absent, presence can go undetected, especially if it is only sporadic.
- The smaller the large carnivore population and the more recent their appearance in a country, the more likely that they are detected and documented because of the increased effort that is used to follow rapidly emerging situations. Where populations are large and well established, on the other hand, there is often no capacity to document every large carnivore which happens to sporadically show up outside the permanent range.
- The distinction between “permanent” and “sporadic” presence would be best done based on the presence or absence of confirmed reproduction. However, too many countries do not have the monitoring capacity to do so.
- In conclusion, changes in the large carnivore distribution range at the European scale between 20122016 and 2017-2022/23 must be interpreted with a focus on the “permanent” distribution but also need to consider changes in monitoring methods and effort, and trends in population size.
Population estimates:
- There is a wide diversity of methods in use, and a massive variation in the accuracy and precision of the numbers produced. For several countries and species no recent, or no reliable, population estimates were available at all. Some are only based on expert assessments or informed guesses, whereas others result from more robust methodology.
- Even when the same method is used, it can be used in many different ways. Camera trapping and the use of non-invasive DNA from scats / hairs are widely regarded as the gold standard methods for many species. But they can be used in different ways, either to add up the known individuals or produce statistical estimates of density with confidence intervals based on capture-recapture analyses.
- Many populations are shared among several countries and individuals, or social groups may be counted in more than one country. While monitoring and population estimates are harmonised among countries sharing borders for some species and populations, for many transboundary populations there is no correction.
- Different field methods also target different population metrics. Some survey all individuals, whereas others only survey certain parts of the populations, such as adults, or just document the presence of reproduction. Various conversion factors exist to allow conversion between the number of wolf packs and the number of wolves, for example. Unfortunately, there is as yet little standardisation of these conversion factors even within the different parts of the same population.
- Surveys can also be conducted at different times of the year which can reflect very different population sizes, especially in areas where hunting is conducted. Methods also change and adapt over time, which makes comparisons with older data harder.
- A final challenge concerns the availability of data as we had several cases where data is known to be available, but is not accessible, or not sufficiently well documented to include.
Overall, while data should be viewed with caution, it generally reflects population trends and sizes in Europe relatively well. For a detailed overview of challenges, see the report.
